Data & strategy

To examine the influence of the weather on the organic online market, we zoom in on a season-sensitive niche: recipes. If we enter ‘recept’ and ‘gerecht’ into the Google Keyword Planner without any further specifications, it returns 3.536 related keyword ideas.
Among the most popular hits are ‘lasagne recept’ (search volume 40.500 and 33% fell in the last 3 months), ‘gluhwein recept’ (search volume 12.100, 45% fell) and ‘nasi’ (search volume 33.100, 18% fell). The decline in interest in glühwein is self-explanatory, but apparently the Netherlands’ searchers do not consider a Mediterranean lasagne or a subtropical nasi a summer meal either.
If we sort the 3.536 search ideas by changes in search interest over the past 3 months, all the rapid risers appear at the top. So, what does the Netherlands eat in summer?
Not surprising, but very clear: at the first ray of sunshine, the average Dutch person fires up the barbecue. Among the keywords with rapidly rising search volume, a whole host of terms containing ‘bbq’ and ‘barbecue’ (and one stray 'barbeque') stand out.
Additionally, search trends show that the Dutch do not have an enormous amount of inspiration when it comes to summer meals, as searches for a generic ‘zomerse gerechten’ are also mushrooming.
Search interest in some keywords is rising even faster than the mercury. The biggest outliers:
| Keyword | Monthly search volume | Increase over the past 3 months |
| Tasty zsummer dish | 260 | 3800% |
| Green aasparagus bbq | 1000 | 3076% |
| Aaubergine bbq | 1600 | 2471% |
| Salade bbq | 1300 | 2471% |
| Rhubarbbarb recipe | 5400 | 2120% |
| Zalmon on BBQ | 720 | 2011% |
| Recipe rhubarb | 1000 | 1995% |
| Rhubarb tart | 2900 | 1956% |
| Summer m meal | 1000 | 1900% |
| Vega bbq recipes | 480 | 1900% |
Rising temperatures are accompanied by a preference for easily digestible food. Fresh and light vegetables such as rhubarb and aubergine feature frequently in the increasingly popular search terms. In particular asparagus and paprika we find genuine summer vegetables. Of the 458 recipe risers, there are 21 a search query with ‘asparagus’ and 17 a term containing ‘paprika’.
In recent months, we have also opted for something light when it comes to proteins. Recipes with salmon and other types of fish are proving popular. At number 1 is still, incidentally meat, with over 44 different meat searches among the rising searches. Here too, we prefer the lighter varieties: half of the meat-related keywords consist of chicken recipes. Vegetarian and vegan searches appear relatively infrequently in the list, with just 5 keywords.
When we look at the dishes rising rapidly, it is striking that there are many searches for Mediterranean cuisine. Greek-inspired and North African recipes are popular, but number 1 is, despite that the lasagnes are not popular in summer, the Italian cuisine. All kinds of variations on pasta are well suited to the heat, with16 keywords.Also, salads do exceptionally well in warm weather, with as many as 59 salad varieties among the rising keywords.
Depending on which starting keywords you enter into the Keyword Planner, Google provides you with a different set of related keywords. To see what the online market looks like for the summer recipes theme, we can therefore search a little more specifically for keywords relating to ‘summer dishes’, ‘summer recipes’ and ‘warm-weather recipes’.
If we combine the terms from the previous and new keyword lists with a search volume of at least 100 and at least a doubling over the past 3 months, we are left with a collection of 457 quintessentially summer recipe terms left. The clear seasonality in the search-interest trend for this set of words underlines this:
Chart1, total search volume trend
Over the past4 years, the peak of the total search volume was from May through August. We can see exactly from the graph when how the weather behaved each year. Thus a quick Google search shows that May 2020indeed one of the sunniest months ever was, and the weather in July 2021 very changeable, with a disappointing search volume for summer dishes as a result.
If, for the set of457 keywords with a Share of Voice analysis, we look at which websites in Google's organic search results perform best, themarket distribution is as follows:
Chart 2, A Share of Voice for the set of summer recipe keywords: the market distribution based on the indexing percentage and the average position within the top 20 of the most visible websites for this theme.
Leukerecepten.nl is the market leader, with 74,8% of the 457 keywords in the top 20 which together have an average position of 4,5 search results.5Other parties that rank for the summer theme include Jumbo.com, Lekkerensimpel.com and Boodschappen.nl. Are these websites that always perform well, or have these sites focused their efforts on organic visibility for summer recipes?
If we also generate an SOV for a more general set of recipe search keywords of equal size, a different landscape emerges.
Chart 3, A Share of Voice of general keywords in the themes ‘recipe’ and ‘dish’.
Jumbo.com and Leukerecepten.nl also lead the pack here, but Lekkerensimpel.nl is considerably less visible in this average top 20. AH.nl performs better for general recipes than for the summer theme, as do Uitpaulineskeuken.nl and 24kitchen.nl generally capture a considerably larger market share. As expected, the general SOV also excludes the niche players Bbq-Helden.nl and Bbq-Junkie.nl.
Based on our historical position data, we can see for each keyword which shifts have occurred in the top 10. For example, we take the top 10 for ‘asperges recepten’ (sv. 12.100) on 1 January compared with the end of June 2023. As asparagus is a seasonal vegetable, it is easy to capitalise on the annual increase in search volumes.
In graph 4 you can see the initial situation on the left on 1 January and which position these URLs had moved to six months later. In graph 5 you can see the current top 10 for the search term on the right and where the current ranking URLs have come from.
Graph 4, Historical positions and shifts
Chart 5, Current positions and origins
We can see that there have been quite a few shifts since the low season in January. In January, a single standalone recipe was still able to make it into the top 10 positions, but in June we see only the ‘heavier’ overview pages and collections of asparagus recipes.
It is also notable that recipe giant AH.nl has disappeared from the top 10 The reason: in recent months, the website has modified the overview page for /recepten/witte-asperges and redirected it to the more general /recepten/asperges, probably to become more relevant for a broader search volume. Unfortunately, the change appears to have come too late to benefit from the current peak asparagus season.
If we look again, based on the 457 combined set of summer recipe-keywords once again at what people in the Netherlands like to eat and drink as temperatures rise, then the following winners emerge.
Top 5most popular summer recipes (highest search volume)
1. Salad
2. Iced coffee
3. Pasta salad (winners: chicken and tuna)
4. (Kamado) BBQ recipes (both meat/fish and vegetables)
5. Gazpacho
Top 5biggest recipe trends (largest increase)
1. Delicious summer dishes (+3.800%)
2. Pasta salad to accompany the BBQ (+2.614%)
3. Vegetarian BBQ recipes (+1.900%)
4. Summer oven dishes (+1.867%)
5. BBQ prawn skewers (+1.867%)
Curious with which seasonality and trends you are dealing with in online marketing? Or would you like to know what your market share is in a particular industry or theme? Aspen Digital collects the top 100-data from almost 190.000 keywords and uses this data for unique insights in every market. Get in touch with no obligation for a tailored analysis of your website and industry!
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